Why Middle Eastern Investment Has Not Turned The Magpies into Title Challengers
Eddie Howe isn't typically given to histrionics or grand media statements. So by his usual demeanor, his media briefing following the weekend's 3-1 defeat counts as a furious tirade. His side took an early lead but West Ham took the lead by half-time, while also hitting the post and seeing a spot-kick revoked by VAR, prompting Howe to make a three substitutions at the break.
“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” Howe said. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I think that was a reflection of where we were at that stage during the match and it's extremely uncommon for me to feel that way. Actually, I don’t think I have during my tenure as head coach of the club, therefore I believed the squad required a significant change at the break. That’s why I did those decisions.”
Three key players all came off at half-time and the team managed to steady to an extent in the latter period, without ever really looking like they could get back into the game against a side that had won only one of their last nine league matches. Considering how packed the middle of the standings is, with just three points dividing the top spots from mid-table, and nine points between the upper and lower ranks, a run of 12 points from 10 games has not placed the Magpies stranded but, similarly, they must not finish the season in 13th.
The Problem of Expectations
The challenge to an extent is one of perception. With the Saudi PIF, Newcastle have the richest backers in the globe. The assumption when the Saudi fund bought a majority stake of the team in recent years was that it would have a transformative effect, similar to the former Chelsea owner had at Chelsea or the City Group had at Manchester City. The distinction is that both of those owners took over prior to the advent of FFP regulations (and the ongoing allegations against Manchester City concern if they violated those guidelines after they were implemented).
Profit and sustainability restrictions limit the capacity of owners, however rich, to invest funds on their teams and so in that sense likely might have hindered any Saudi effort to elevate the team to the level of City. However it wasn't necessary for the club's spending to have been quite as cautious as it has been; they might have spent more and stayed inside the threshold – or simply taken a fairly minor Uefa penalty given their big issue is primarily with the European than the Premier League regulation.
Infrastructure Investment and Financial Regulations
Additionally, stadium development is excluded from PSR calculations; the simplest method to increase revenue to create more financial headroom would be to expand or renovate the stadium. Considering the site of St James’ Park, with listed buildings on multiple sides, in reality that likely means constructing an entirely new venue. There was talk in spring of potentially making the short move to a local park – resistance from community organizations could surely have been surmounted with a commitment to create a replacement green space on the existing ground location – but there has been any progress on that proposal. There has been substantial cutbacks from the PIF on a range of projects as it refocuses on domestic affairs; the approach to the football club seems completely in keeping with that strategic shift.
The Alexander Isak Saga
The Alexander Isak episode was born of that conflict. A bolder leadership could have portrayed his sale as necessary to release funds for further investment; rather there was a unsuccessful attempt to keep him. This resulted in the team started the campaign amidst a feeling of disappointment despite the signings of several new players. The opening was mixed: one win in their initial six fixtures.
Yet it seemed a corner had been turned. They secured five victories in six matches prior to Sunday, a run that included convincing wins of a Belgian side and a Portuguese club in the European competition. That’s why the performance against the Hammers was such a shock. The issue maybe is that Newcastle’s approach is extremely intense, high-energy; a minor decrease in intensity can have significant effects. Maybe the strain of Premier League, Champions League and Carabao Cup competition, five games in 15 days, had got to them. The German forward started each of those matches and looked especially weary.
The Nature of Contemporary Football
This is the nature of today's football. Coaches must be prepared to rotate. The manager has been unfortunate that the forward's injury has meant he is lacking attacking options but, regardless of how reasonable the explanations, the weekend's showing was inexcusable –particularly following scoring first at a ground primed to criticize its home team.
Howe will hope it was merely a temporary setback, one of those days when all players is off-colour simultaneously, but if Newcastle are to secure the Champions League in the future, let alone eventually mount an actual title challenge, they cannot be as unreliable as this.